Effectiveness of Swiss climate policy

Assessing the effects of the Swiss CO2 tax

Our approach to the ex-post assessment of the effects of the Swiss CO2 tax, introduced in 2008, combined
A.    a highly aggregated econometric estimation of the direct impact of the CO2 tax on the consumption of fossil fuels by households and firms (performed by Ecoplan with FHNW), with
B.    a disaggregated general equilibrium simulation of the direct and indirect impacts of the CO2 tax on the consumption of fossil fuels by households and different economic sectors (performed by our lab).
In part A, econometric equations of the consumption of fossil fuels by households and firms were estimated, with a view to identifying the specific impact of fuel prices. The thus estimated price elasticities were used to assess the specific contribution of the CO2 tax through its impact on fuel prices. Standard coefficients were then used to translate the changes in fuel consumptions into changes in CO2 emissions.
Part B addressed the limitations of part A by using a detailed simulation model of the entire economy, the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3, in order to assess all the impacts of the CO2 tax, including rebound effects, income effects, spillovers between taxed and non-taxed sectors, etc.
This project was funded by the Federal Office for the Environment

Emissions scenarios 1990 to 2030: Modelling a scenario without measures

Switzerland’s CO2 emissions have fluctuated around the same level since 1990, while worldwide emissions grew markedly. However, it is not clear at all how this stabilization was obtained and, in particular, to what extent the measures taken since 1990 have actually contributed to the observed emissions trajectory and its stabilisation. Part of the reporting requirements of the UNFCCC for policies and measures under the National Communications process consists of an estimate of the emission development without measures – if possible broken down by sector.
The aim of the study was to create a scenario for the development of CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2030 that shows the uninfluenced development (without emission reduction policy measures since 1990). This scenario was compared with the emission development with emission reduction measures implemented, i.e. with actual CO2 emissions data between 1990 and the latest date available (2014) and with CO2 emissions predicted on the basis of a scenario that extends current emission reduction measures until 2030.
This project, carried out in 2015-2016, was funded by the Federal Office for the Environment. Results of this contract were used for Switzerland’s Second Biennial Report (2016) under the UNFCCC.

Emissions scenarios 1990 to 2030: Updating our simulations

This study, carried out in 2017, allowed updating our scenarios for the development of CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2030 that show (1) the uninfluenced development (without emission reduction policy measures since 1990) and (2) the emission development with emission reduction measures implemented, i.e. with actual CO2 emissions data between 1990 and the latest date available (2015) and with CO2 emissions predicted on the basis of a scenario that extends current emission reduction measures until 2030.
This project was funded by the Federal Office for the Environment. Its results were used for the Federal Government’s Message to Parliament accompanying the draft CO2 Act post-2020, as well as for Switzerland’s Seventh National Communication.